Using GIS and Modeling to predict regional change.

John Landis leads a research team at the University of California, Berkeley, which has created the California Urban Futures model. The model projects future land use based on historic trends, cultural factors, environmental constraints, policy variables, and a range of market pressures.

The team's model divides a region into a one hectare grid of squares organized into a series of layers each reflecting factors such as the slope of the land, form of property ownership (public vs. private), ecological sensitivity, proximity to roads and other infrastructure elements. Various policy scenarios can be modeled by tuning factors up or down reflecting their relative importance. Factors are inter-linked so that, for instance, the effect of new public transit vs. the creation of new roads on development patterns can be understood.

The maps to the right show projections generated for Contra Costa County in the San Francisco Bay Area. The first map shows high levels of population and job growth with no new policy constraints on development. The second shows the result with some environmental protections, the third shows a new freeway added in, and the fourth includes a commuter
rail extension.

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